More public schools should be built urgently, especially in Gauteng and the Western Cape; the number of learners in the Eastern Cape continues to drop; and the middle class is funding a growing percentage of teachers and other staff in public schools. These are some of the important findings in FEDSAS’s “Education in numbers” report. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Department of Basic Education’s data from 2009 to 2023.

 “FEDSAS launched this enormous research project as our point of view is that proper data is necessary to make good decisions. The data helps us to recognise tendencies, and it acts as signposts and indicators for decision-makers. Data is crucial, especially for decisions about the sustainability of certain practices,” says Dr Jaco Deacon, CEO of the Federation of Governing Bodies of South African Schools.

 “It is clear that the Department of Basic Education’s data collection and management improved significantly over the past 14 years. However, it is still possible that information from certain periods or regions could be inaccurate,” says Mr Riaan van der Bergh, Deputy CEO of FEDSAS, and manager of FEDSAS’s Centre for Technology and Centre for Finance and Risk Management.

Van der Bergh says the findings point to clear tendencies that should form the basis of data-driven decision-making. “One of the most important findings is that not nearly enough schools were built in the right areas over the past 14 years to accommodate the growth in the number of learners over the same period. Many of the current challenges facing schools are directly related to a lack of infrastructure.”

Since 2009, the number of learners increased by 7%, with more than 12 700 000 learners currently being educated by nearly 455 000 teachers in 22 511 public schools.

“Of great concern is the situation in the Western Cape and Gauteng. In the Western Cape the number of learners increased by nearly 289 000 since 2009. In Gauteng, the number of learners increased by nearly 725 000. On average, schools in Gauteng accommodate 1100 learners, which is nearly double the national average. Yet over the past ten years only five new schools were built in Gauteng.”

Van der Bergh says in the Eastern Cape the opposite is happening. Since 2009, more than 650 schools closed down and the total number of learners decreased by more than 300 000. On average, schools in the Eastern Cape accommodate 466 learners.

The need for more public schools in the right areas is underlined by the growth in the number of independent schools. Countrywide there are nearly 740 000 learners in 2325 independent schools. “In Gauteng 31% of all schools are independent schools, with a noticeable increase in the Western Cape and Limpopo. To some extent, the increase in the number of independent schools hides the shortage of public schools in certain areas. For example, the situation in Gauteng would have been untenable without independent schools.”

While there are 7% more learners, the number of teachers increased with a mere 1%. “This puts added pressure on schools’ finances. The number of teachers paid by school governing bodies increased from 23 756 in 2009 to 44 015 in 2023. For the most part, middle class taxpayers are carrying this financial burden.”

Another interesting finding is the significant decrease of the number of male learners in grades 11 and 12. “While this is in line with the World Bank’s statistics for Sub-Saharan Africa, it is important to investigate the reasons behind this.” 

 Van der Bergh says in light of debates on the possible impact of aspects of Bela on especially Afrikaans schools, FEDSAS specifically looked at the data on Afrikaans schools. “There is not enough data available yet, but it looks like there might be an increase in the number of Afrikaans learners migrating from Afrikaans single-medium schools to multilingual schools, including schools that do not use Afrikaans as language of learning and teaching at all. Rather than a tendency, this information could be used as a starting point for scenario planning.”

 Ultimately, the focus is on the best interests of each of the more than 13 million learners in public and independent schools in South Africa. “Legislation, political rhetoric, and discussions in the media do not change the reality of the data. Instead of ideological arguments and political agendas, we need credible and dependable data to plan for the future of our children. FEDSAS’s research provides access to this information for everyone from school governing bodies to policymakers at national level.”